#2022 midterm elections predictions series#

The new projection comes as a series of recent polls show a tightening of the generic congressional ballot.

Four of those five races are for seats held by Democratic senators, while the remaining race, in Pennsylvania, is for an open seat held by retiring Republican Pat Toomey. The Fox power rankings list five Senate races as toss-ups: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. On the stump: Biden touts agenda, slams ‘MAGA Republicans’ to start midterm push Kathy Hochul should ‘give up her creepy obsession’ with Ron DeSantis: criticsīiden’s job approval improves but 53% still think he’s doing a bad job: poll Democrats need 50 seats to keep their majority, while Republicans need 51 due to Vice President Kamala Harris having the ability to break ties in the chamber.Ĭan white college grads save Dems, just no end to gov’t fraud and other commentary On the Senate side, the struggle for power is even tighter, with Fox projecting 49 safe Republican seats and 46 safe Democratic seats. Peter Meijer’s Trump-backed opponent - with hopes for an easy win later this year. However, Democrats moved it into the “toss-up” category after the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee propped up incumbent Rep. Fox News Power Rankings predicted Republicans will take 220 seats in the House of Representatives.Īt least one of the 28 races labeled a “toss-up” by Fox, in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District, was described as “Lean R” in July. That’s less bullish on the GOP than the network’s July projection, which foresaw between 225 and 255 Republican House seats in the new Congress.ĭespite the downward revision, Republicans could still match the seat total from two of their most famous midterm wins, in 1994 (230 House seats) and 2010 (242 House seats). The latest Fox News Power Rankings unveiled Monday predict Republicans to win between 220 and 248 seats in the House, for a majority of between two and 30 seats. Given the narrow majorities Democrats hold in both the Senate and House of Representatives, it seemed reasonable to expect Republicans to gain majorities in one or both chambers.With less than 80 days until the midterm elections, Republicans are still favored to take back the House of Representatives, but with a smaller majority than previously forecast, according to a new projection. From that point on, 2022 was likely to be a good year for Republicans simply because presidents’ parties usually lose congressional seats in midterm elections. The basics haven’t changed since Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election.

Why is that perfect? Because economic performance metrics and political indicators are throwing up a mess of contradictory signals, making any analysis of what’s going to happen, or even what’s happening now, unusually difficult. Later in the day, the FiveThirtyEight model tipped in the opposite direction for the first time, giving Democrats a tiny edge. In the morning, the Decision Desk model for Senate elections tipped in favor of Republicans capturing a majority in that chamber. Two political forecasting models delivered the perfect assessment of state of the 2022 midterm contests on Tuesday.

2022 midterm elections predictions